Newbie help - Is my plan/strategy or even logic just wrong?

[jsmith]

Hi everyone!

So I am only starting now taking advantage of free sign up bonus offers with around 300eu on my CC and 2k eu on Betfair.
I have a few questions about this and I am not sure if my plan is even correct.

My original plan/idea is to sign up to 3x100eu (100% deposit bonus) offers and to be exact: WilliamHill, Centrebet and Betclic (100eu offers for Greek residents) and "move" the funds with the bonuses to my betfair account and once everything is on Betfair (300 + the profit) I will reload the CC and move on to the next offers.

Now, after signing up with all the bookers together (yeah maybe that was just stupid..) I went to a few oddsmatcher sites (I check out this site together with this 2-3 more) and find anything above 90% which is being played within the next 2 days (maximum), with odds above 3 and below 4.5 on a draw, and place my back and lay bets right away (maybe I shouldn't even be playing back/lay and use some combination with 12 or 1x or something).

This way my profits are being cut down dramatically and I am not sure if this is my mistake or normal thinking. For example I played yesterday:
Event Date Country HomeT AwayT Rating Odds Bookie Placed Risking Possible R Pure Bonus
11-Dec England Premier Fulham Sunderland 97.01% 3.25 / 3.35 Centrebet 200 / 196.97 200 / 462.88 187.12 (-12.88) 87.12 (12,88%)

and of course it ended up 0-0 which made me lose my betfair money and have a balance of 650eu in centrebet account.. So I am already -12.88eu from the 100eu offer bonus and according to my calculations the next bet I will place at around 97%, it will make me lose another 25eu no matter what the result is..

Am I doing this like 100% wrong, am I missing something? Please help me out here..


I would also like to know what would be the ideal betfair balance I will need in order to make this plan work..

Thank you!

[SharpeShooter]

A few pointers.

1) There's no rush to complete the offers so don't just jump on the first odds you see. Personally I would not take the odds you have used here as I know all these books would have better matches available.

2) As you've found you can never guarantee you are going to bust a bet into Betfair so never assume you will

3) Get a moneybookers account. Most bookies pay out to MB in 24 hours, William Hill & Betclic usually in 12 and some even pay out in minutes. This helps you recycle you money much quicker.

4) Underlay !! (Underlaying only works when the bonus is added up front and never works on a post wagering bonus)

I don't know what the wagering requirements are for the bonuses so for the example I'm going to use 3 x deposit and bonus (x6B)

Back 200 Units @ 3.25 / Lay 196.97 Units @ 3.35 = -12.88 Units
This leaves 400 Units wagering, assume the same odds again we can simply double the figures

Back 400 Units @ 3.25 / Lay 393.94 Units @ 3.35 = -25.76 Units
Total Loss is 38.64 Units or 61.36 Units profit and finished. If the wr is more than 6 times we aren't going to make much profit this way.

Instead, on bet 1 assume you are only going to make 75 units profit from the offer (already 13.64 units better than we have)

Back 200 Units @ 3.25 / Lay 184.21 Units @ 3.35 =
Bet loses - 25 Units and bust out, move on
Bet Wins + 17.11 Units and move on to Bet 2 as before to complete wr.
17.11 - 25.76 = -8.65 = 91.35 Units Profit

The bonus offers you have are very generous. In the UK William Hill is £25 (approx 30eu) and is SNR, Betclic is a £20 refund on losing bet (Effectively SNR) and Centrebet is £50 at best. Any of our UK matched betters would kill for these offers so don't waste them !

[SharpeShooter]

Just to illustrate about waiting for better odds. I have just found a 2.6/2.6 match at William Hill

Back 200 Units @ 2.6 / Lay 189.47 Units @ 2.6 =
Lose - 20 Units and bust out
Win + 16.85 Units and move on

There is also available a 2.05/2.04 Match so for bet 2

Back 400 Units @ 2.05 / Lay 412.06 Units @2.04 = - 8.54 Units

Total profit either 80 units or 104.31 Units

[jsmith]

Ah got it! Thank you very much I just have 1 Question. Which calculator do you use?

The only "bad" offer we have is bet365 which only give us 100eu instead of 200pounds that gives to the UK. We also got a couple that give us nothing but we got a ton that give us 100eu once we deposit 100eu. Like the above. Once you deposit 100eu your balance after a few minutes becomes 200eu.

Thank you!!


**PS: Oh one thing I forget.. They don't let us withdraw anything before we "clear" the bonus else we lose it (on a lot of bookers at least).

[SharpeShooter]

I have a spreadsheet calculator which allows me to change my lay stakes manually, the rest is trial and error

http://rapidshare.com/files/436474984/Matching_Calc.xls

[jsmith]

Ok great thank you!

I've moved both my WilliamHill and Betclic funds into my Betfair account (so out of 200eu bonuses I made 181eu although the risks as you told me up there were huge) and now I have a balance of 650eu on Centrebet and I am already -463 in betfair (so in overall -13eu from the 100eu bonus offer).

What would you suggest me to do next? Wait for a 100% or over match or go with a match I found at around 97.50% with back 1.97 and lay 2.02 and if I do how should I play it?

Doing 650eu back and 650eu lay would give me negative 33eu no matter what the result is which would pretty much kill my bonus (-33-13 = -44 out of 100eu bonus offer) and I am not even sure I am going to win this!

Now doing 650eu back and 615eu lay would give me +3eu if the bet is won and -46 if the bet is lost which I would end up with -46-13 = -59eu out of the 100eu bonus offer..

Please advice!
Thank you!

[SharpeShooter]

Ok, if I understand you correctly you have 650 Euro in Centrebet, which is your 100 Euro deposit, 100 Euro Bonus and 450 Euro winnings?

What is the wagerig requirement in the bonus terms?

You have already lost 463 Euro in Betfair to this offer so you have lost 13 Euro of the bonus, you are still 87 Euro in profit at the minute?

If your wagering requirement is less than your balance, i.e. <650 Euro then just wager what you need to to complete the wagering at the best odds you can find and withdraw any money you're left with.

If your wagering requirement is >650 Euro wager your whole balance with an underlay to compensate for further wagering if you win.

Using a made up example

Back 650 @ 3.25 / Lay 634.74 @ 3.3

Lose = -47 Euro, bust out with 40 profit
Win = +2.60 Euro, continue wagering

[jsmith]

Yup you understood correctly!

I am not sure about the exact translation of the wagering requirement but here is the best translation I can do:
"To be able to withdraw your bonus winnings, you have to bet the total of this winnings (or the bonus? I am not sure what it means) 5 times the minimum, to a sports bet with odds higher or equal to 1.5 to each prediction"

Yes I am 87eu in profit at this minute.

I guess I have to go with plan B and underlay right?

Thank you!