Matching The Gee Gees

[SharpeShooter]

Rule 4 allows bookies (and betfair) to make a deduction on odds offered in the event of a non runner. If you back a horse at 8 and then the favourite were to be withdrawn after your bet this of course alters your horses chance of winning. This is where rule 4 comes in and the bookie will deduct a % from the odds, this can vary from book to book but is usually between 15 - 20%. Betfair will also make a deduction from the odds you layed at

If you back at 8 and lay at 6.5, check that there are the same number of runners on each card as you could be laying on a market that's reformed after a non runner but backing before the non runner.

If both racecards show the same number of horses running then this example is a no brainer as even after rule 4 deductions you still have a decent arb

If the odds were much closer, say 8 and 7.6, then depending on each bookies method of deduction an arb could turn into a loss, or vice versa.

If your horse wins at the bookie then you will be paid out at the reduced odds and you will pay at reduced odds at the exchange (Usually slightly not in your favour). If your horse doesn't win then you will collect your backers full stake as usual (always in your favour)

[Alan]

Just read up on it abit thanks.
Are their any other things to watch out for?

[SharpeShooter]

The only other issue I've had is I once looked at the place market on Betfair.

As a general rule I now take extra care if I find an arb over 2 points.

Close to the off odds can change very quickly. Don't try to back and lay within half an hour of a race until you are really comfortable with it. I once had odds change from 3.6 to 4 in the time it takes to confirm a bookie bet and click back onto my betfair window via an 8mb connection, about 3 seconds

[Admin]

Yet again, great advice Steve . Thread moved to help and advice and stickied for future ease.

[SharpeShooter]

A real life example of how a rule 4 deduction affects your bet

Placed £50 Bet at 3.0 today at manutd.Betfred (Thanks Tatty )

Layed £50.85 at 3.0 at Betfair

Expected return was £48.31 (5% commision) for qualifier

3 horses withdrawn from race (2 of which long odds)

Betfred paid out at odds of 2.8 so I won £90 + my stake returned
Betfair paid out at odds of 2.73 so I paid out £87.97

So rule 4 turned a £1.69 loss into a £2.03 win

Had the horse lost I would still have collected my £48.31 from Betfair

Please be aware it can work the other way too

[alanjohn]

Ladbrokes told me that if I placed a bet that became void I would lose my free bet money so I was cautious about horse racing because of non runners. Has anyone else found a problem with this?

[Admin]

Check the t and c's for each bookie to be sure. Betting about an hour before the off requires quick fingers but non runners are invariably known way before then.

[millman]

As requested by Bull, a quick guide to matching the Gee Gee's (How I do it at least). Beware that it is much more volatile and has complexities such as rule 4. Personally I don't worry about rule 4 as it can work for you as well as against you. I have lost £7 on a qualifier that should have been pennies, I've also returned an extra £6 on a SNR bet. It tends to even itself out BUT don't do this if you can't accept losing more than you thought you would

The bigger the meeting or race, the greater the competition between the bookies and more liquidity on Betfair. At 11 am most races on betfair have between 2 - 20,000 matched, for ascot this was more like £250,000.

At the off there is usually £300,00 - 600,00 and again for ascot more like £3-4m. This made ascot great for arbs and I made >90% on EVERY SNR I did and on some >100%
Rule 4 can often work in your favour.

When the bookies publish their early prices get on quickly and look for an arb. Glancing Betfair you'll soon realise which of the days meetings will attract the money. You can normally find a least 1 arb or narb and often 3 or 4 races will have an arb in them. Get your bet and lay in place as with any other sport.

This afternoon i was looking for trading opportunities, and came across this arb at Bet 365. Stratford 15.40 Kickahead odds 7.00 , Lay odds at Betfair 6.40. I wagered £120 at Bet365 and Layed £132.24 at Betfair - a nice profit of £5.90, whatever the outcome.
But 2 horses were withdrawn after I placed my bet. The Betfair reduction factor came into play and my lay odds ended up at 5.60 instead of 6.40.
The horse went on to win and Bet365 paid me out at the full back price of 7.0, resulting in an overall profit of £111.68.
So rule 4 can work in our favour sometimes.

[Mikey-G]

Steve, so do you reckon you can make decent daily profits purely just trading the gee gees!? I'd love to follow suit if this is the case but perhaps need a few pointers, like do you use any software, amount of bookies to use, how to avoid limits etc?

Sorry to barrage you with the questions but after reading your posts you definitely seem the man in the know when it comes to matching the horses!

cheers in advance for any help and guidance.

p.s: Have you tried to get horses matched at Canbet?, Its nay impossible (excuse the pun, couldnt resist!!) from what i can see!! sat looking for arbs with them for hours with no luck! I swear there prices are hooked up to move with betfairs, creating frustration of the highest order!

I ask about Canbet because they currently have a 20% net loss return on horse racing losses. Add this to a decent arb and your laughing......if you can actually find a bet in the first place!!!

So anybody know any software that can directly track down these bets at Canbet?

[SharpeShooter]

I only tend to arb the horses when I'm doing a free bet or qualifier. If I get an early price arb I'll try and find more arbs in the same race. I tend to stick to the main UK bookies that have good odds (Ladbrokes, Will Hill, Paddy, Coral, VC, Bet365 & Stan James) On a good day you might get 4 arbs or more in one race at 4 different books.

If you can afford the stakes and the risk you could trade horses on Betfair but it's like trading the stock exchange, very risky. I don't use any software I find my arbs manually on the horses.

Canbets offer can be utilised by underlaying at BF the horse you back at Canbet. As a simple example back £100 at evens and lay £90 at evens assuming no commision, you win £10 if horse wins and lose £10 with £20 cashback if it loses, effectively creating an arb.

Check the T&C at canbet though as I think there's some clause about 8% of turnover or 20% of losses, whichever is smaller. If this is the case if every horse you backed lost you'd only get 8% Cashback. Basically try it with small stakes before taking the plunge