A tip for Newbies

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A tip for Newbies

Postby SharpeShooter » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:20 pm

I have noticed a lot of new faces on the forum and sometimes us older heads take things for granted. Unless someone shares what they know we can't assume that you will all know it!

Betfair use a combined liability system. What this means is that in an event with more than 1 possible outcome but where only 1 outcome is possible (No dead heats) that your liability is only the maximum of all the bets placed on this market.

Now that sounds complicated but it's as simple as, if a game of Football finishes 2-0, it can't also finish 3-0. So although you may have laid both score lines to a £100 liability your combined liability is actually less than £100, not £200 as you may think. The reason it is less is because it is -£100 liability + The stake of the other scoreline.

You may be thinking so what? Trust me this is very useful when first starting out and I wish I had known it back then. It enables you to do more Sign ups more quickly. In the next post I'll explain how
"All you need to ask yourself is do you feel lucky? Well do you......Punk!"
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Re: A tip for Newbies

Postby SharpeShooter » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:41 pm

I am going to use an event happening In the future to give you an example of how you can use this information, the US Open Golf in June. Golf tournaments are great for this as only 1 person can win and they always have high odds, great for SNR bets. By using all our SNR's on this 1 event we minimize the amount of money we need in Betfair and so maximise the number of sign ups we can do at anyone time

Looking at odds currently available, imagine the tournament was this weekend. We spend the week making our qualifying bets at the bookies in question and save the SNR's for the Golf.

William Hill £25. Lee Westwood 17, Lay 16.5. Liability £376.96 Profit £23
Totesport £10. Louis Oosthuizen 51, Lay 44. Liability £489.34 Profit £10
Betfred £50. Tiger Woods 10, Lay 10.5. Liability £409.07 Profit £41
Blue Square £25 Luke Donald 21 Lay 22. Liability £478.38 Profit £21.50

Total Profit £95.50, Float required £505. Return on Investment = 19% in 1 WEEK
"All you need to ask yourself is do you feel lucky? Well do you......Punk!"
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Re: A tip for Newbies

Postby SharpeShooter » Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:53 pm

So the maths behind it.

Looking at the figures your total liability at BF appears to be £1753.75. However because Betfair combine liabilities you max liability is actually the £489.34 on Oosthuizen. We can then subtract all the other lay stakes from this to give you your actual liability.

What this means is that if Oosthuizen wins the US open you lose £489.34 at Betfair but win all the lays on the other players, as well as the back bet at Totesport. As you have made a net loss on the market you will pay no commission on the winning lays, this is worth £4.66 in this instance

So your actual liability at Betfair is
489.34 -
24.32 (Lay stake on Westwood)
22.78 (Lay stake On Donald)
43.06 (Lay Stake On Woods)

399.18 Max Liability

The other £105 required is for the Qualifying bets at each bookie
"All you need to ask yourself is do you feel lucky? Well do you......Punk!"
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Re: A tip for Newbies

Postby Admin » Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:20 pm

I (continue to) like the cut of your jib shooter. 8-)
Here's the dichotomy. That information is invaluable to a newbie with a limited float however the rationale behind it may well be beyond their comprehension when first starting out ( present company excepted/accepted?).
Its a classic chicken and egg scenario. You need the experience first but by the time you have it you've squandered the opportunities those early days presented. Unless you have lots of friends who can benefit from your wisdom that is;)
Them and the FEM faithful :D
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