jethro wrote:There's to much relies on luck, and if i fell in a barel of nipple's i'd come out sucking my thumb!
I have to make 2 points in reply to this
1) Slots are about maths, not luck. The expected return is 90 - 95% depending on the individual slot (ONLY for online slots), however unlike Blackjack or roulette the variance is much wilder. I did the qualifying for this bonus on 3 accounts and returned approx £110, so up by £35. £76 of this was on 1 single win, on the 3rd account too. If you are going to take on slots bonuses you have to committ to the long haul and not be put off by 1 bad result. If you are down after a prolonged period of wagering then re-assess, so set yourself a stop loss. The more you wager the closer to the EV you will get. It breaks down like this
Imagine 100 x £25 bonuses with 1 x wr. You wager £2500 you expect to return £2250 at the lower end. Using either roulette or Blackjack you would expect to win 49% of your double ups so 49 x £25 = £1225, add this to your return = £3475 so profit of £975. EV per offer approx £9.75
2) Sometimes you make your own luck. There's obviously a perception that I am quite lucky, but you have to consider I am very pro-active. I do virtually all the Ladbrokes slots offers, and I used to do them on 6 accounts until I got rumbled. That amount of activity you are going to hit some big wins, but also some big losses. The EV remains 90 - 95%
I've played thousands of hands of Video Poker and hit a Royal flush once. I believe the odds of that are about 10,000/1 so am I lucky or was it just my turn?
I back probably 50 horses a week arbing and doing SUBS. If I have a 10% strike rate then I am backing 5 winners per week. In a year of MB'ing I've had 3 notable Best Odds Guaranteed Winners and probably half a dozen rule 4's that notably increased my winnings. That's not luck it's just pure number crunching. The more bets you place the more likely it is that you will have a BOG