Horse Arbing

[SharpeShooter]

There's a method I have been trying from time to time which has finally paid off. No guarantees in this but it is risk free. In all the times I've tried this I've only had 1 winner so it's been worth the effort in terms of lost profits.

Firstly Find a horse arb. I had a coral £20 SNR and found an arb 17/14. I layed it off to keep the £20 Value of the fre bet. This gave me an effective underlay with £27 extra profit if it won. I halved this amount and laid £135 at 1.1, my ideal being that it ran well and got beat on the line. This is in fact what happend and I picked up a £155 lay. Had the horse won I would still have had £33.50 from a £20 SNR

Added bonus to this is if you horse wins and is then disqualified you will win both bets if the bookie pays first past the post

[Admin]

I like the sound of this shooter but struggling to get my head fully around it. Can you break it down a little bit more with the actual figures and odds you placed? How much liquidity was there at 1.1 when you placed the bets? Clearly the lay won't ever get taken unless it runs well-how many times have you tried this? If you aren't maximising your returns fully on these "failed" occasions then over time this may cancel out your extra profits when the plan comes together (I'm unclear if this is the case or not).
Thanks for sharing

[SharpeShooter]

In the past I have been known to let bets on horses go in play if the odds have moved against me when placing the lay. This mean I have watched the odds on a lot of races. I noticed that in a lot of races horses were coming right in before going on to lose and it gave me the idea. Of course you can never guarantee which horse it will be but I decided to give it a go. It works especially well on sprints where there are lots of close races.

I don't arb the horses as much as I used to, partly because my situation at work has changed and partly because I have 6 gubbed accounts at Stans . I always used to fully under lay my bets anyway as the 1 winner with £100 profit would cover 50 losing bets where I could have made £2 guaranteed. I have probably tried this method 15 - 20 times. In all those attempts I have had 1 horse win which cost me about £12 profit on a small qualifying bet (I still made £12 as the idea is to risk half the profit).

In the example which won I used a £20 SNR. Before the race I backed at 17 at the bookie and laid at 14 at BF. I laid to make the full £20 from the Freebie meaning that if the horse went on to win I could have made an extra £27 profit from the underlay on top of the £20 Freebie. I decided to potentially sacrifice half of this extra profit if the horse won, giving me £33.50, still V good from a £20 SNR. I then laid £135 at 1.1, a lay risk of £13.50. I didn't bother to check the liquidity at 1.1 to be honest as I knew that if the horse was heading near the end of the race it would be taken.

It is a long shot, but the reward is 10 x the profit you're risking. Question is for every winner 10 winners you back do you back one that runs well but ultimately doesn't win?

[Admin]

Question is for every winner 10 winners you back do you back one that runs well but ultimately doesn't win?

That's the $64,000 question indeed. At those odds I'd have guessed the lay would lose you money but without actual practice, who knows?
I like the cut of your jib though shooter-always looking outside of the box for the holy trading grail.
In order for this strategy to work again I'd guess it'd have to be neck and neck (with the lay selection just losing in the end for profit). Under such circumstances this would arguably be a 50/50 scenario.
Since on most occasions the odds would never get that low, the lay bet wouldn't be placed. When they did and the lay bet was taken, 50% of the time you'd lose the lay? Isnt it similar to mug punting small stakes on high odds? Lose little and often but the big win seems to make it worthwhile in the end?

[SharpeShooter]

That's the theory. The advantage is that you're always making profit, you're just giving some of that profit up hoping for a bigger win. If you could back a winner which is then DQ'ed that would be the holy grail as both the Back and Lay would pay.

[Admin]

If I had your luck i'd definitely be thinking that way too
Cheers for the info mate