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As always please don't spam. This Forum is not for beginners. You should have a good grasp of matched betting, overlaying, underlaying etc and be experienced enough to have watched the betting exchange markets move up and down in a way that has caught your eye and captured your imagination...

Hello All

Postby 0james0 » Sun Feb 23, 2014 12:48 pm

Hope you guys are all keeping well, haven't been back here for a while, although I still send fresh meat your way when they get interested in my matched betting success stories.

I have a new idea, something I want to explore, but wanted to share it here first to see what you think and maybe help with giving me some direction on how to do this.

So, the thought:

I am convinced that there are regular trends on betfair, things that occur regularly and with a high degree of certainty and follow a usual pattern.

The difficulty is spotting these trends and mining the vast amount of data needed to see if it happens often enough to bet on.

As a made up example, it could be something like:

The price of a heavy favourite to win a football match, always drops either just before (Preferable) or just after the match has kicked off.

I'm convinced that trends like this exist and happen in nearly every game. If I had the software to collect the information and show me a chart, I'm sure it could be found.

What do you think? Is this entirely plauasable? Or am I searching for the holy grail that simply does not exist?
0james0
 
Posts: 691
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Re: Hello All

Postby Admin » Sun Feb 23, 2014 3:05 pm

Yes you could be on to something. There appears to be a case of betfair "providing" equity on early markets (by that I mean not genuine punter bets). I've seen this happen when betting on early markets and once certain odds are accepted the liquidity that had previously been available on odds the other side of the accepted bet suddenly disappears?!

Your favourite example might rely on early matching in anticipation of the movement you describe to lock the profit in. It'd be interesting to see if this info develops some more...
Admin
 
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Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:44 pm

Re: Hello All

Postby 0james0 » Sun Feb 23, 2014 4:22 pm

What I need is some stat gathering software, something that can keep track of the odds and give me the data I need.

Any ideas?

I was thinking something like Geeks toy, but not sure it any of them record the price movements.
0james0
 
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:07 pm

Re: Hello All

Postby Admin » Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:22 pm

No ideas sorry. Never really got past free bets, arbs and trading. I'm not sure that holy grail actually exists for the masses although i do have a daydream where I can see 24 hours into the future (which ends rather well for me). You can keep your invisibility, x ray vision or flying. That would be my super power of choice :mrgreen:
Admin
 
Posts: 1045
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:44 pm

Re: Hello All

Postby 0james0 » Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:01 pm

I've found a few, one that is officially endorsed by bet fair.

Downside is they charge 60p per match that you want historical data on, so 100 matches would be £60.

Looks really good though, the software runs through the match as if it was live and shows the odds changes pre and in play.

Google Fracsoft and you can see their site and download the tool for free to try.
0james0
 
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